AFTA - China : Mari Belajar Berenang

"Dirjen Bea dan Cukai Anwar Suprijadi mengatakan negara kita belum siap menerapkan FTA tersebut. Alhasil, selain menimbulkan potensial loss di penerimaan negara, FTA juga bakal menggangu industry, termasuk petani dalam negeri dengan gempuran produk impor terutama dari China, seperti buah-buahan."

Sumber : Kontan Online disini

Seperti yang telah disampaikan di beberapa surat kabar dan pembahasan di radio, telah jelas sudah bahwa Free Trade Agreement antara ASEAN dan Cina adalah sebuah keniscayaan yang mesti kita hadapi bersama.

Cina sebagai kekuatan ekonomi dunia baru, telah menunjukkan pada dunia bahwa 'lab kapitalisme' bisa hidup di negara yang berfaham sosialisme. Dan strategi pemerintah untuk mensubsidi industri dan menciptakan infrastruktur dan melakukan strategi 'bermain di semua industri kecil atau besar' telah menunjukkan kesuksesannya.

"Sudrajat menyebutkan bahwa pada tahun 2007 defisit perdagangan Indonesia dengan China masih sebesar 200 juta dolar AS tapi pada tahun 2008 membengkak menjadi sekitar 2,9 miliar dolar AS."

Sumber Antara News disini

Beberapa hari terakhir ini telah keliahatan bahwa semua sudah pada 'teriak' dan ketakutan, industri kosmetik misalnya.Kosmetik lokal Rp 20.000 sementara produk Cina Rp 20.000 bisa dapat satu lusin, beraneka warna pula. Meski begitu ada pula yang tidak perlu khawatir misalnya tekstil sintetis karena justru kita ekspor ke Cina.

Ada pro kontra dalam masalah ini, ada yang bilang sebaiknya kita yang lebih efisien memangkas ekonomi biaya tinggi, tingkatkan daya saing, pangkas biaya distribusi, kolusi, korupsi dan seterusnya. Inilah lagu lama yang selalu didengungkan.

Dalam dunia yang serba terbuka ini, sudah saatnya kita tidak saling menyalahkan dan mulai dari diri masing-masing saja. Sebagai individu mau tidak mau kita mesti meningkatkan kompetensi kita.Sebagai informasi : perusahaan multinasional sudah mulai melirik manager-manager asal Asia (India) karena performance sudah mencapai sementara harga sangat bersaing.

Dan untuk masalah trade agreement ini, seperti kata dosen ekonomi saya tidak ada jalan lain untuk melawan kedigdayaan Cina selain 'belajar berenang' ya belajar berenang. Berenang menghadapi kenyataan bahwa kita kalah bersaing dan relatif tertinggal. Bersiaplah untuk belajar bersaing secara individu, perusahaan dan nasional.

Tresna

Bank's Credit Growth Not as Expected

There is 2 more months this year and signs of growth of the banking credit is still low. October last year 38% , this year only 13 % and the following month 33% 2008 and 18% for august this year. There will be a correction of 12-13% from 15% of credit growth this year.

Indonesian Central Banks Governor Muliaman Dharmansyah Hadad, said that the total undisbursed credit is Rp 250 billion. This indicates that the private sector would not absorb this credit or the credit rate is still high for them because the decrease rate of the BI Rate is not as fast as the decrease rate of banks credit rate.

Pic 1. BI Rate 2009

Source: Bank Indonesia Official Site

From the graph above you can see that BI (the central bank) rate has already shown a decreasing from the current 8.75 % at January 2009 to 6.50 % at October 2009. This is a good initiative move the real sector. But current Banks are giving credits for SMEs at rates around 12-13% and for corporate is 10-11%.

Seeing the decrease of the BI Rate, if the Banks don,t follow, this policy could become useless, because business owner would rather use their own money rather then debt. In the financial management point of view these business owners can not increase financial leverage from utilizing debt at a controllable level.

Syarifuddin Hasan, The new Minister on SME and Empowering Cooperative, said that programs for the cooperative and the Small and Medium Enterprises known as KUKM (Koperasi dan Usaha Kecil Menengeh) said their department will continue the last ministers program but with a different mindset. He says this ministry must be the top enabler and empower of small businesses and increase the level of 51 million Small businesses into large business that could increase economic growth.

Sources : Kompas, Kontan, BI

SBY's New Economic Team, The Market Awaits

Last night(Oct 21st), the economic team of the elected president Susilo Bambang Yudoyono, was finally conveyed to public as the president announced his cabinet members at 22.00 WIB.

All the presidents men

The names that arise are names that were ones expected before. When the names first arise to the media before the official announcement, there were pro and contra about the capability of these candidates. In the presidential system it�s a prerogative right for a president to choose his men.


Basically it can be chosen from the competence background, a political decision, and the passionate of the person to that field says political analyst. So its totally up to the president, whether his choice is based on the track record and competence of the candidate i.e economic degree and experience in the field. It can also be based on the political choice by means that accommodating coalition parties. In this case the candidate could be a choice of the party leader. And the last is from the concern, shown by sound track record and the interest to the field and pledge to make positive changes.


But the real thing or indicator after all is the market reaction to the candidates or to the final announcement. There was a slight fall of the index (Wed (21/10/2009) closed at 25,419 poin or 1,02 % decrease) when the candidate names shown, it was said that because the market felt that the candidate was incompetent and has little or no track record in the field. But overall it affected positively to the market and investors, because there were equalizers (like Sri Mulyani and Djoko Kirmanto) with proven track record.


But the president's words were that he can't satisfy everyone since this is the beauties of democracy. If these new ministers do not perform, reshuffle awaits.

To make it straight, we will list the tasks that the economic team must do or take care of are :

* Increase the tax to GDP ratio which is relatively low (13%)
* Decrease the dependency of international debt
* Reduce the dependency of Non Sustainable energy (hard task for the energy and resource minister)
* Create Jobs to reduce national unemployment rate and the poor.
* Increase industrial and economic competitiveness
* Empower small and medium enterprises / SME (UMKM)
* Make economic policy that is friendly for investors.
* Equalize the development of the Eastern side of Indonesia


The first task of these ministers is to translate the 100 days goals of the president to planned, achievable programs in their departments. And the second give prosperity to the people.

Hollywood,USA also Caught Up in the Financial Crisis

For some people, there was a thought that the movie industry in Hollywood wouldn't get hit by the financial crisis. It turns out that the industry got hit quite hard. Banks aren't so confident to lend producers sums of money for months.
While income from theaters nationally decreased, the income from DVD sales aren't good either.The problem got more complicated when the Screen Actors Guild will make a strike again.
As the city of angels, LA is getting to be a more and more expensive place to produce a television series says an executive in the industry.



Other states like Illinois, Michigan and New York gave tax incentives up to 40 percent for movie or TV production. Two top serial TV had moved to New York.One is 'In Treatment'(HBO) and the other is 'Ugly Betty'(ABC). The governor ,Arnold Schwarzenegger is worried of this situation and asked the State legislators to pass the incentives.
Total box office movies produced this year was 67 less than last year.Paramount says it will only produce 20 movies per year not 25.Time Warner closed its New Line Cinema business unit.
It's been tough for the economy at Hollywood these days. (source BW)

Latest 2009 Lay Off Prediction

(BelajarEkonomi.Com)Enterprise Owner Association (Apindo) has recently revised their prediction of total lay offs in Indonesian industries. As mentioned before by it's chairman,lay offs are a must and very difficult to avoid.

Actually there are choices for company owners to deal with the crises:
1. A Salary Cut
2. Homing employees, which means only receiving basic salary and no presence and transport pay, and ..
3. The hardest choice which is Total Lay Off.
At a recent press conference, the Apindo chairman, Sofyan Wanandi said the figures would reach 1 - 1,5 million lay offs which would peak at the mid of 2009.This is above the ILO prediction of 650,000 (six hundred and fifty thousand) .
To support his statement, joined with him in the press conference was Chairman of the Textile Association, Chief of the Association of Shoemakers, Head of Food and Beverages Association, and the Motorcycle industry Association's chief.
The unemployment rate would rise 9 percent caused by this world economic crisis.
(Source : PR)

Indonesian Banking Sector Update

(BelajarEkonomi.Com)
The Indonesian banking sector seems to have some growth in the credit sector eventhough the crisis proceeds. The Central Bank's governor said that there has been a lowering of the liquidity because of some policy adopted.
Yearly credit growth are 37.1 percent.Investment credit grew at a record figure of 42,9 percent, Working Capital credit went 39 percent.While consumption credit grew 33 percent.
The Non Performing Loan(NPL) or known in Indonesia as 'kredit macet' figure is at a stabil rate of 3.9 percent. The Banking sectors CAR (Capital Adequicy Ratio) is still as high as 16 percent.
From the central bank's point of view, credit and market risk is currently in a safe level, but could worsen along with the crisis.
Projected economic growth for next year of 4.9 to 5 percent would grow the credit rate from 15 to 20 percent says the governor.
( Microblogged by Tresna.Source : KCM)
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Fwd: The Fed Lowered Rates , Stock Market Confident

(BelajarEkonomi.Com) As a good sign for the world market.The effect of one percent decrease of the Fed Rate already gave confidence to the Indonesian Stock Exchange.
The index strenghten 21,15 points to 1.363,98. The LQ rose 1,91 percent to 274,31(Kompas 18 dec 08)
These increases are due to the confident market which predicts that the lowering of the Fed Rate would stimulate the US economy real sector which further would hopefully increase world products demand.
It is also a good sign that the US government is taking the appropriate actions.

Obama on Economic Recovery

Congratulations. The US of America has voted and they have voted for Barrack Obama. US citizens have great hopes on him. And so does much people around the world is also expecting so much from him. This is also for us in Asia especially in Indonesia. What would be his steps to tackle this crisis? From his campaign it is quiet clear what he will do.

Let's just make this simple. Roosevelt at his time had plans for the US to recover from the Great Depression. His plans while campaigning were also interesting and got the minds of voters. Obama is in some sort of the same situation now.

But the thing is .. Can Obama pull it off this time? What Roosevelt did was he created projects such as building the great Roosevelt Dam to absorb the unemployment because he thinks the enemy of an economic crisis is unemployment. This fiscal expansion policy is to regain the economic growth and is also known as a Keynesian economic approach.

Now what Obama wants to do is cut tax for the low income, increase them for the middle and rich. He also said he wants to create jobs by giving incentives to entrepreneurs. This is to increase the people's demand of goods and service which can move the economy. Regulate the financial market, and take the troops from Iraq which will significantly lower the cost of war.

The current conditions when the US market has low demand of goods from exporting countries like China and Indonesia. And when they (US) stop demanding, what it means to us is lay offs and factories forced to close because of no order. And as we speak is happening now in Indonesia. HR departments and company owners are in a state of worry because they are faced with the cost of termination and other possible legal actions by workers. A local West Java newspaper also quoted that a total 70.000 lay offs are about the happen in the beginning of 2009, starting now.

That's why recently the Indonesian government is finding ways so that these industries have the ability to survive a crisis by depending on the local market.

Can we call this an effect of globalization?

There is much hope that the US economy will recover again, and in Obama hands it the faith of the US Economy which we hope will also effect the world's economy.

Economic Growth Rate at the Start of 2008 Not as Expected

The Indonesian economic condition recently has not been in a good shape because of external and internal factors. The government is working hard in revising the state budget, because there aren�t many options.

As targeted at the beginning of the year, the rate of development seems to be at the lower level for the target between 6,2 � 6,8 % . Meanwhile the inflation rate at the beginning of 2008 has risen to the rate around 6 � 6,5% from the earlier target of 4 � 6 %.

Last January the inflation rate has reached a level of 1.77% and Year to Year reached 7,36%.Quite a high figure regarding that the target is around 4-6%.

These figures have risen because the macroeconomic indicators have worsened due to external conditions such as the sub prime mortgage crisis in the US. The central bank�s revised prediction of the US�s economic growth from 1.9 % to 1.5% shows the pessimism.

While the latest World Economic Growth was also corrected from 4.4% predicted to 4.1 %. This slowing of the world�s growth gives effects to the export rate and the nation�s economic growth.

The rise of the world�s oil prices has also increase the allocation for subsidies in Indonesia and burden the national budget. This increase allocation for local subsidies has also decreased the fiscal role of the budget which is for consumption and investment of the government aiming to create economic stimulus.

Even so the national reserve is still predicted to exceed the USD 70 billion. Currently (February 2008) the national reserve is USD 55 billion. This makes the rupiah in a stable level of Rp 9300 against the green bag.

The central bank�s rate around 7.5 to 8% is set so the real sector moves better. Currently housing loan rate (KPR) is in a ideal level around 9 -10%. But requirements are tighter then before.

The workforce tally each year for the late 5 years are 2,5 million new workforces while the economy only absorbs 180 thousand workforce for each 1 % of economic growth.The ideal figure is 400 thousand workforce absorption each percent of growth.

Pursuing the Economic Outlook of O-Eight

The 2008 economic outlook has been predicted by many analysts. There are optimism and also pessimism. Only time will later prove it.

The economic growth is expected to be 6,5 % due to developments outside of Java. The government�s target is 6,8 %. Development in Java Island is perceived to be in a stagnant phase already.

The world�s crude oil price could again reach sky high in 2008 (towards USD 100/barrel) therefore the government will have to increase subsidies or find other solutions to this problem. Currently, they are socializing this scheme to shift from lower octane fuel to a higher one along with the increasing price. But it is not popular to the people.

The program of shifting from kerosene to LPG is still not as the government plan yet. In many rural areas in Indonesian cities we see people queuing for kerosene for their daily cooking needs, while LPG is not well spread according to plan.

As the effect of this price increase, it would trigger inflation rate to a figure 6,8% above 4- 6 % target of the government. This means that the Central Bank Rate (BI Rate) wouldn�t get any lower than the current 8% figure. Even so, the government has a more optimistic figure of 7,5%.

The US sub prime mortgages issue is still haunting the global economy cause it will determined whether the US will step into an economic recession phase. This year (2007) alone, many investors shift their portfolio investments to high grade economy countries (Asian Markets) to gain more profit because of higher yield.

Because of the above conditions, analyst predicts that the stock market could reach an index of 3000 � 3600 as a bullish condition. Any movements of the Fed Rate has direct impact to Asian markets proven by 2007�s September decrease from 5,25% to 4,25%.

But this December after proven that that lowering did not do much to the US economy, the world markets seems to now have immunity to such policy.

The scenario that we would not want to see is the US economic recession impacts China (China�s reserves most are in USD), then later impacts the Asian markets including Indonesia.

Currently Indonesians are relying on CPO, mining goods, and the portfolio investment markets. But prices could get bad in international trading because of bargaining conditions.

The RI economic team has great responsibility to the sustainability and stability of the Indonesian economy.

Redaksi

BelajarEkonomi.Com